Enbridge's Northern Gateway pipeline proposes to carry 525,000 barrels of oil a day west from Alberta's Oil Sands to the lonely British Columbian port town Kitimat, 1,177 kilometres away, crossing some 780 streams, 11 major watersheds before being exported by cargo ship to Asian consumers. Enbridge estimates that the project will generate about $270 billion to Canadian GDP over the life of the project.

 

But at what cost? What are the potential impacts to British Columbians? This project attempted to use geo spatial economic analysis via multi criterion analysis to assess the risk faced by salmon populations dependent on those 11 watersheds, and in particular the economic value of those salmon populations. Findings suggest that British Columbian fisheries could expect damages on the order of approximately $1.5 million in lost revenues per year while the pipeline is in operation, an approximately 3% decline in wild salmon revenues, but perhaps insignificant in the context of the entire project.

 

The primary aim of the project was to demonstrate the potential for geospatial analsysis to integrate economic/ social data, and in this aim I consider the project a success. Data was not perfect, $ estimates were not without assumptions, risks are significant, but not entirely known. I cannot claim that this study  is comprehensive, complete, however I feel its findings add valuable insite in a societal discussion that has become incredibly complex and controversial, 

 

I hope you enjoy.

- Tyler Hawkins.